Forex On-Line Trading (Trend Investasi Masa Kini)

Kalau melihat fenomena bahwa omzet transaksi forex di pasar keuangan sudah jauh melampui omzet transaksi di pasar riil (ekspor-impor dan perdagangan domestic), maka ini menunjukkan banyak pihak yang “bermain” di pasar Valas itu. Menurut survey yang dilakukan BIS (Bank International for Settlement), omset perdagangan forex di bursa utama meningkat 36% antara 2001 hingga 2004, sedang di online trading yang lebih banyak memperdagangkan produk derivative dari mata uang, meningkat 77% untuk periode yang sama.
Pada tahun 2001, omset perdagangan forex di bursa utama baru mencapai USD1,200 miliar perhari, angka ini melonjak menjadi USD 1,900 miliar perhari pada tahun 2004.
Di online trading, pada 2001 omzetnya baru USD 575 miliar perhari, sedang pada 2004 sudah mencapai USD 1,200 miliar perhari.
Tertariknya banyak pihak tersebut disebabkan untuk memulai berinvestasi pada perdagangan forex tidak diperlukan proses yang lama, cukup memiliki modal maka seseorang sudah bisa berinvestasi. Ada kecenderungan para professional bekerja keras mengumpulkan uang sebanyak mungkin, untuk bisa pensiun muda kemudian menggunakan dana pensiunnya itu untuk berinvestasi. Karena investasi dilakukan secara intensif, maka investasi bukan lagi menjadi pekerjaan sampingan (side job) melainkan telah menjadi profesi baru atau pekerjaan utama (main job).
Banyak kalangan investor demikian pekerjaan sehari-harinya hanya memandangi layer computer untuk melihat pergerakan harga mata uang asing. Mereka inilah penyandang profesi baru yang dikenal sebagai Day Trader, yaitu orang yang melakukan transaksi forex harian secara on-line.. Tapi istilah harian itu tidak berarti 24 jam, bisa saja setelah membeli, satu jam kemudian investor menjualnya, atau malah beberapa menit kemudian. A day trading menjadi sangat popular dan digemari, karena dengan internet, a day trader bisa merealisasikan transaksi secara real time (seketika), dan bisa dilakukan di mana saja. Bisa meminta terminal di Kantor pialang, sehingga trading room pialang bisa menjadi kantor a day trader. Atau cukup dari rumah, seperti dilakukan Brett Wilson, seorang pilot Cathay Pacific. Bahkan seorang ibu rumah tangga di Filiphina ber a day trader dari ruang keluarganya. (Nathaniel & Erck, 1999). Bahkan bisa juga dilakukan lewat Warnet (Warung Internet).
Hal ini bisa terjadi karena di samping bisa bertransaksi secara on-line, banyak situs yang menawarkan berbagai infromasi, yang bisa diakses dengan mudah. Sementara itu, kemudahan yang ditawarkan teknologi internet itu telah mendorong lahirnya perusahaan pialang forex secara on-line, yang dikenal sebagai internet broker dan tidak ketinggalan pula pialang forex konvensional membuka divisi perdagangan forex on-line-terutama di Negara-negara maju. Kombinasi itu, kemudahan bertransaksi dan tersedianya banyak perusahaan internet broker, telah memungkinkan investasi pada perdagangan forex dilakukan dengan murah. Cukup dengan modal Rp. 1,000,000 bahkan ada yang Rp. 500,000 kita sudah bisa memulai berinvestasi pada forex on-line trading dengan nilai kontrak (contract size) kecil, USD 10,000.Dengan kemudahan dan kemurahan itu forex on-line trading telah menjadi trend investasi masa kini.
Salah satu site yang bisa melakukan trading dengan mudah, cepat prosesnya, murah, dapat bonus $ 5 dan pasti mendapat keuntungan 100 % lebih. Dan bisa dilakukan dengan latihan terlebih dulu dengan dana praktise USD 10,000.

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Economic indicators have the potential to generate volume and movie prices in markets.

Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published by various agencies of the government or private sector. These statistics, which are made public on a regularly scheduled basis, help market observers monitor the pulse of the economy. Therefore, they are religiously followed by almost everyone in the financial markets. With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators in general have tremendous potential to generate volume and to move prices in the markets. While on the surface it might seem that an advanced degree in economics would come in handy to analyze and then trade on the glut of information contained in these economic indicators, a few simple guidelines are all that is necessary to track, organize and make trading decisions based on the data.
Know exactly when each economic indicator is due to be released. Keep a calendar on your desk or trading station that contains the date and time when each stat will be made public. You can find these calendars on the N.Y. Federal Reserve Bank Web site using this link http://www.ny.frb.org/, and then by searching for "economic indicators." The same information is also available on many other sources on the Web or from the company you use to execute your trades.
Keeping track of the calendar of economic indicators will also help you make sense out of otherwise unanticipated price action in the market. Consider this scenario: it's Monday morning and the USD has been in a tailspin for three weeks. As such, it's safe to assume that many traders are holding large short USD positions. However, on Friday the employment data for the U.S. is due to be released. It is very likely that with this key piece of economic information soon to be made public, the USD could experience a short-term rally leading up to the data on Friday as traders pare down their short positions. The point here is that economic indicators can effect prices directly (following their release to the public) or indirectly (as traders massage their positions in anticipation of the data.)
Understand what particular aspect of the economy is being revealed in the data. For example, you should know which indicators measure the growth of the economy (GDP) vs. those that measure inflation (PPI, CPI) or employment (non-farm payrolls). After you follow the data for a while, you'll become very familiar with the nuances of each economic indicator and what part of the economy they are measuring.
Not all economic indicators are created equal. Well, they might've been created with equal importance but along the way, some have acquired much greater potential to move the markets than others. Market participants will place higher regard on one stat vs. another depending on the state of the economy.
Know which indicators the markets are keying on. For example, if prices (inflation) are not a crucial issue for a particular country, inflation data will probably not be as keenly anticipated or reacted to by the markets. On the other hand, if economic growth is a vexing problem, changes in employment data or GDP will be eagerly anticipated and could precipitate tremendous volatility following their release.
The data itself is not as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations. Besides knowing when all the data will hit the wires, it is vitally important that you know what economists and other market pundits are forecasting for each indicator. For example, knowing the economic consequences of an unexpected monthly rise of 0.3% in the producer price index (PPI) is not nearly as vital to your short-term trading decisions as it is to know that this month the market was looking for PPI to fall by 0.1%. As mentioned, you should know that PPI measures prices and that an unexpected rise could be a sign of inflation. But analyzing the longer-term ramifications of this unexpected monthly rise in prices can wait until after you've taken advantage of the trading opportunities presented by the data. Once again, market expectations for all economic releases are published on various sources on the Web and you should post these expectations on your calendar along with the release date of the indicator.
Don't get caught up in the headlineNews. Part of getting a handle on what the market is forecasting for various economic indicators is knowing the key aspects of each indicator. While your macroeconomics professor might have drilled the significance of the unemployment rate into your head, even junior traders can tell you that the headlineNew figure is for amateurs and that the most closely watched detail in the payroll data is the non-farm payrolls figure. Other economic indicators are similar in that the headlineNew figure is not nearly as closely watched as the finer points of the data. PPI for example, measures changes in producer prices. But the stat most closely watched by the markets is PPI, ex-food and energy. Traders know that the food and energy component of the data is much too volatile and subject to revisions on a month-to-month basis to provide an accurate reading on the changes in producer prices.
Speaking of revisions, don't be too quick to pull that trigger should a particular economic indicator fall outside of market expectations. Contained in each new economic indicator released to the public are revisions to previously released data. For example, if durable goods should rise by 0.5% in the current month, while the market is anticipating them to fall, the unexpected rise could be the result of a downward revision to the prior month. Look at revisions to older data because in this case, the previous month's durable goods figure might've been originally reported as a rise of 0.5% but now, along with the new figures, is being revised lower to say a rise of only 0.1% Therefore, the unexpected rise in the current month is likely the result of a downward revision to the previous month's data.
Don't forget that there are two sides to a trade in the foreign exchange market. So, while you might have a great handle on the complete package of economic indicators published in the United States or Europe, most other countries also publish similar economic data. The important thing to remember here is that not all countries are as efficient as the G7 in releasing this information. Once again, if you are going to trade the currency of a particular country, you need to find out the particulars about their economic indicators. As mentioned above, not all of these indicators carry the same weight in the markets and not all of them are as accurate as others. Do your homework and you won't be caught off guard.

General information regarding major economic indicators

When focusing exclusively on the impact that economic indicators have on price action in a particular market, the foreign exchange markets are the most challenging, and therefore, have greatest potential for profits of any market. Obviously, factors other than economic indicators move prices and as such make other markets more or less potentially profitable. But since a currency is a proxy for the country it represents, the economic health of that country is priced into the currency. One very important way to measure the health of an economy is through economic indicators. The challenge comes in diligently keeping track of the nuts and bolts of each country's particular economic information package. Here are a few general comments about economic indicators and some of the more closely watched data.

Most economic indicators can be divided into leading and lagging indicators.
Leading indicators are economic factors that change before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. Leading indicators are used to predict changes in the economy.
Lagging Indicators are economic factors that change after the economy has already begun to follow a particular pattern or trend.

Major Indicators
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - The sum of all goods and services produced either by domestic or foreign companies. GDP indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing (or shrinking) and is considered the broadest indicator of economic output and growth.
Industrial Production - It is a chain-weighted measure of the change in the production of the nation's factories, mines and utilities as well as a measure of their industrial capacity and of how many available resources among factories, utilities and mines are being used (commonly known as capacity utilization). The manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use.
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - The National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM), now called the Institute for Supply Management, releases a monthly composite index of national manufacturing conditions, constructed from data on new orders, production, supplier delivery times, backlogs, inventories, prices, employment, export orders, and import orders. It is divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing sub-indices.
Producer Price Index (PPI) - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of price changes in the manufacturing sector. It measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers in the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and electric utility industries for their output. The PPIs most often used for economic analysis are those for finished goods, intermediate goods, and crude goods.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level paid by urban consumers (80% of population) for a fixed basket of goods and services. It reports price changes in over 200 categories. The CPI also includes various user fees and taxes directly associated with the prices of specific goods and services.
Durable Goods - Durable Goods Orders measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. A durable good is defined as a good that lasts an extended period of time (over three years) during which its services are extended.
Employment Cost Index (ECI) - Payroll employment is a measure of the number of jobs in more than 500 industries in all states and 255 metropolitan areas. The employment estimates are based on a survey of larger businesses and counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments.
Retail Sales - The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores from samples representing all sizes and kinds of business in retail trade throughout the nation. It is the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending patterns and is adjusted for normal seasonal variation, holidays, and trading-day differences. Retail sales include durable and nondurable merchandise sold, and services and excise taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Excluded are sales taxes collected directly from the customer.
Housing Starts - The Housing Starts report measures the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. A start in construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building and is comprised primarily of residential housing. Housing is very interest rate sensitive and is one of the first sectors to react to changes in interest rates. Significant reaction of start/permits to changing interest rates signals interest rates are nearing trough or peak. To analyze, focus on the percentage change in levels from the previous month. Report is released around the middle of the following month.

News (July-15-2008)EUR/USD will break 1.6000 again
Menurut analisa daripada team trader kami bahwa EUR/USD akan menembus titik
tertinggi sepanjang sejarah lagi yaitu diatas 1.6000 bahkan lebih.

Mengingat US (Amerika Serikat) tengah diperkirakan akan memasuki masa krisis
karena permasalahan mereka yang tidak kunjung reda hingga saat ini, ditambah
pula harga minyak dunia yang terus melambung, sehingga bisa dipastikan bahwa
EUR/USD akan menembus angka 1.6000 kembali karena pelemahan US Dollar tsb.

Harga minyak juga DIPERKIRAKAN akan bisa menembus ke angka $200/barelnya,
dan bisa dibayangkan bagaimana nanti...

Bagi anda yang mempunyai posisi floating sell di mata uang EUR/USD tersebut-
maka harap berhati-hati karena anda bisa kemungkinan terseret semakin jauh
bila anda tidak ada manajemen risk yang baik sebelumnya.

INGAT! Jangan bertrading dengan bermodalkan "menahan" karena pasti jebol.
dan jangan asal main teknik-teknik ngawur seperti scalping ataupun trapping (Buy Stop/Sell Stop) tanpa tahu akibatnya atau tidak diimbangi dengan tools yang baik, karena teknik ini sudah pasti akan terseret dan slippage di saat pasar berfluktuatif, dan malah bisa mengakibatkan kerugian pada anda.

EUR/USD akan menembus harga 1.6000 dalam 1-2 minggu ini (dan diperkirakan
tanggal 15 Juli 2008 besok bisa saja menembus angka tersebut bila hasil
berita EUR ternyata lebih bagus daripada USD. Tapi segera EUR/USD akan
menembus 1.6000 kembali)

=======================

Our Trader predict that EUR/USD will break 1.6000 again, because as we see
that US still haven't resolved their problem, and also the Oil Price is
increase very high. This can make US more problem.
(May be the Oil Price can hit $200 / barrel ?)

If you still have a sell position of EUR/USD then you must becareful

EUR/USD may be can hit 1.6000 at tomorrow (15 Jul 2008) or at least in the
1-2 weeks. So if you can handle this situation you can gain a big profit
with this condition

Happy trading and We wish you a Big Success